Mexican tourism industry to finish 40% down in 2009

I'm writing this post having just seen Alfredo Coutino of Moody's Economy.com being interviewed on CNN Espanol.

Mr. Carino offered some context for the potential economic consequences of the swine flu crisis that is gradually starting to abait in Mexico. They are certainly not pretty.

According to the Director of Moody's America Latina, the Mexican tourism industry will fall by around 40% by the end of 2009. Mexico's GDP is expected to fall by roughly 0.5%.

This is a shocking but believable figure from the international analysis and forecasting firm.

Over the past week, I have been traveling through the state of Quintana Roo, from Chetumal, through Tulum and Cozumal, and now heading toward Cancun, I have seen exactly what many others who are staying away from Mexico haven't: an industry decimated by factors completely beyond their control.

The media's obsession with narcos and Mexico-as-a-failed-state were almost enough to give tourists a reason to stay away, but the AH1N1 virus has seen them and raised them. It's now a whole new game of cards.

Since my escape from Mexico City, I have visted truly incredible, beautiful places. From small beach towns, incredible lagoons and eco parks, to big tourist destinations like Playa del Carmen and Cozumel. All very different but unified by the fact that there are simply no tourists there.

People are desperate for business. Arriving in Playa del Carmen yesterday was an eye opener.

Previously, we'd been to the Bacalar Laguna and the Mahual beach resort on the Costa Maya, but these are places that, while reliant on tourism, are pretty small. It didn´t seem out of the ordinary that there were only a few people around. The southern Costa Maya is still finding its feet when it comes to major international tourism and has not built up the infrastructure nor the reputation of the tourism giants further north.

But Playa was a ghost town. If you don't know Playa del Carmen you need to know that it grew up as as a fishing village ferrying divers to the brilliant blue waters off the island of Cozumel.

Over the last ten years it has grown and grown, partially in the shadow of Cancun but partly as the less plastic alternative. It is now very much like a Caribbean cruise ship stop, full of shops selling everything a tourist might want, from 'I love Playa del Carmen t-shirts' through to high-end designer brands.

In any other year this town would be over-run by tourists. Today there was hardly a gringo in sight. Salespeople in places like this are never shy, but there seemed to be an heightened sense of desperation and dissapointment when I declined to buy their hand rolled 'Cuban' cigars.

Cultural centres have also been hit hard. A couple of days ago we stayed in Tulum, home to several important (and magnificent) Mayan temples.

As it says on the label, the ancient Mayan culture is what the Riviera Maya is all about. A huge proportion of foreign visitors to the region come here to view these temples, with the beach holiday being an added bonus. And yet in the last week, travelling the length and breadth of it, I haven't been able to see a single archaeological site.

In fact it was telling that, walking past the bus station I was stopped by a group of European back packers, who, seeing a fellow guero, wanted to know if the ruins were open. When I told them that they weren't, they fell into a huddle to consider how to salvage their trip.

Now, I'm not trying to be alarmist or mournful, just realistic. It's easy to let these numbers become an abstract part of the media's 24/7 swine flu coverage, but it's another case altogether when you're actually experiencing it for yourself.

That's why, as a community, we need to pull together to promote Mexico as one of the greatest countries to visit on Earth, and do everything we can to change people's minds about cancelling holidays, cutting short vacations.

As expats living in Mexico, or seasoned travellers who long ago fell in love with its charms, we need to be blogging, tweeting, sending emails, writing on our facebook walls, commenting on magazine and newspaper articles, basically everything we can that might help encourage others to populate these destinations whose only income is from tourism.

I don't want to come across as all 'feed the world' or Live Aid on you, but I do believe that we can make a difference and have a reponsibility to do our best for the country that many of us have adopted as home.

We'd love to hear more from all of our readers about your favourite places to visit or take a vacation in Mexico. What makes it special? When's the best time to visit? What hotel would you recommend? Let us know in the comment section below, and in my next blog post I'll be telling you my top places to visit in Quintana Roo.