Opinion and Power: public opinion and the tree that fell in the forest

Did the tree that fell in the forest make a sound? The question has been debated by generations of undergraduates, many of whom concluded that without a witness it fell in silence. By the same token, public opinion obviously exists in Mexico because people think and talk with each other, but with so few polls and so little publication it seems to exist in a vacuum.

Admittedly, public opinion can be confused and contradictory, but those very qualities make it useful as a “mirror held up for the society to view itself”, in the words of Ignacio Martín-Báro, the teacher of many survey researchers in Latin America.  The truth is that for most questions of policy reform in Mexico, public opinion is considered inconvenient and hardly enters the debate.

The true political transition in Mexico is barely a dozen years old, and what counts in discussions are election returns and the balance of political forces in Congress. The paucity of systematically published polls in Mexico contrasts dramatically with the situation in the US, Canada, and Europe, where surveys of values, preferences, and views on policy questions are a staple of media coverage. In Mexico, polling is not commonly used as a point of reference, reserved instead for pre-electoral horse-race studies, periodic approval ratings for political figures, or evaluations of institutions.

The re-emerging discussion of energy reform in Mexico is a case in point. Public opinion regarding foreign investment in the exploration and distribution of petroleum is very negative, while elite opinion on the question is positive. Surveys confirm the point made by the bi-annual study of policy issued by CIDE (Center for Economic Investigation and Teaching) and the Mexican Council of Foreign Relations in 2006. While generally positive on most globalization issues, including trade and commerce, only 24 percent of respondents in the general population were in favor of opening petroleum exploration and distribution to foreign investment, in contrast with a 65% approval from opinion makers and the elite. Opening electricity generation (with 32% of the public in favor) and gas development (with 30% of the public in favor) were only slightly better received. (Chapter 4, 2006 report of CIDE and COMEXT, “The insertion of Mexico into the world economy”)

The disconnect between elite and popular opinion has marked the energy reform question for years. One observation is that the elite have failed to change popular opinion, or perhaps they have given up trying to do so. Politicians invest fortunes (usually public money) in promoting their image, but not in forging changes in public opinion. Despite having a generally positive image, the President is not able to translate that approval into public support for specific reform proposals.

Public opinion is inconvenient, so the discussion always turns to what the different forces in the Congress think. In his first press conference, the new Secretary of Government, Juan Camilo Mouriño, emphasized that the debate over energy reform belonged exclusively to the Congress, “the institutional path.”

If public opinion is opposed to the reform, then the debate should extend to every forum imaginable: from media-monitored leadership debates to popular group discussions within the community, the church, business and labor organizations, and the extended family dinner table.

There has been no growth of public policy or social values polling in Mexico during the democratic transition: media sponsored polling is even more limited today than six years ago. University sponsored survey work has declined in the past six years in Mexico, in contrast with polling in the US and Canada. There are also no independent institutions, such as the Pew Research Center in the US, conducting polls in the public interest in Mexico.

The lack of independent and systematic polling on important questions of policy and values is not the cause of impunity in public life, but it is a part of the problem. For the elite to think of their own policy opinions and values as decisive, while ignoring contrary public opinion, is a recipe for disaster. A democratic society based on knowledge of and respect for public opinion, even if that is sometimes confused and contradictory, will end up being more coherent and responsive.

Dan Lund is the founder of MUND Americas, a Mexico City-based public opinion research firm. Their website is www.mundgroup.com.