April 27, 2009 Swine Flu Update: What are the facts?

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A friend who works for a big Mexican media company called yesterday. His company is deciding whether or not to tell employees to stay home today. They are weighing people´s safety, on the one hand, and the public perception of that decision, on the other. What if regular programming stopped at a major news outlet? People might panic.

Which brings me to another question: As the news cycle cranks up the volume on swine flu, is the tone reflecting the facts?

The numbers, gleaned from both Mexican and US news sources, are shaded by how they are presented. For example, 103 deaths have been reported (see www.eluniversal.com.mx), but not all of these are clearly attributed to swine flu.

CNN is saying that as more than 1,600 people may be affected. However, El Universal and Milenio have reported that 900 of those people have been told they don´t have swine flu. What are the real numbers?

There is still much about swine flu that is not known. What are the known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns? to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld.

Why are people dying in Mexico and not elsewhere? How many people are really infected?

However, until there is clear information, it is best to take swine flu very seriously.

Mexico City Mayor, Marcelo Ebrard says that the crisis is at ¨level 8¨ out of 1 to 10 and that by this evening or tomorrow morning he will decide whether or not to shut down public transportation.

Clearly, he wants to make sure we don´t become nonchalant until more is known.  

We will do our best to analyze the information available and bring it to you over the course of the day.

Here is some information about recent developments:

• How are swine flu symptoms different from more common flu symptoms? Apparently, a sudden onset of dizziness, nausea and vomiting could indicate swine flu.
• President Obama says concern not ¨alarm¨ should be the reaction to swine flu.
• The US Embassy in Mexico City will be closed from the 27 through the 30^th.
• At this point, we have no information on the Canadian Embassy.
• 103 people now reported dead in Mexico from, what people believe may be, swine flu.
• Mexico City Mayor, Marcelo Ebrard, is considering a full suspension of business activities in Mexico City and will make this decision Monday night or Tuesday morning, based on levels of contagion. He will consider closing public transportation, including buses and the Metro.
• Apparently, from an epidemiological standpoint, 10 days are needed to slow or stop the spread of a contagious disease like swine flu.
• President Calderón says that Mexico has sufficient pharmaceuticals to deal with the swine flu outbreak.
• Mexico´s Secretary of Tourism says swine flu shouldn´t stop tourism. However, it appears that some flights, particularly from Europe to Mexico and the US are already being cancelled.