April 29, 2009: Update "The swine flu rut"

How serious will the economic impact of swine flu be?

By Aran Shetterly April 29, 2009 - 11:22

Workers on their way home, April 28, 2009, wearing masks to prevent contraction of swine flu

Image: Margot Lee Shetterly

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Update:

As of 10:15 this morning, officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) say they do not see the spread of the swine flu slowing down and that their alert level is moving ¨toward¨ level 5 (6 is the highest possible threat level).

Last night, on her nightly television program, CNN En Espanol news anchor Carmen Aristegui asked two experts if the H1N1 swine flu could possibly have been the result of bioterrorism. The answer was an unequivocal ¨No.¨

In his nightly press conference, last night Mexican Health Minister, Jose Cordova put the number of people possibly infected by swine flu in Mexico at 2,498 and the number of deaths at 159.

A 23 month old baby has died in Houston, Texas, the first swine flu casualty in the United States. The child, however, was not American. Dr. David Persse, the Director of Emergency Health Services in Houston, has confirmed that the child had traveled from Mexico to Houston with his family.

Mexican Mayor, Marcelo Ebrard says that there will be no more restrictions placed on activity in Mexico City (such as shutting down public transportation) unless there is an exponential rise in flu cases.

President Obama has said that schools in the US with cases of swine flu should consider closing. Individual schools in New York and Chicago have already shut down.

Cases of swine flu have been confirmed now in Germany and Austria.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has not yet ordered the production of an emergency vaccine for H1N1 swine flu.

Argentina and Cuba have banned flights to Mexico. Canada has cancelled some flights until June 1. France´s health minister has called for a suspension of flights toMexico, but this has not yet been implemented. (We will update this informationin our travel section.)

Accordingto the New York Times, Egypt will begin slaughtering swine herds as a precaution against the virus.

In a Reuters article, Mexican Health Minister Jose Cordova says that it is not known where the virus originated: "Where did the virus come from? We don't know. Did someone come from California or did someone go from Mexico to California? We don't have that information," Cordova said.

Times Mexico correspondent Marc Lacey tells the story of Édgar Hernández, believed to be the first person in Mexico to have the disease. The first fatality, however, may have been a woman in Oaxaca who died on April 13.

Analysis:

Is the economy stupid!

Well, it´s the illness, but 2009 H1N1 (the new official name for the virus, according to the WHO) is hitting Mexico´s economy hard at a moment when Mexico, and the world, can little afford it.

Mexico´s economy was down 10.8% in February. The US economy continues to struggle. And, this is prior to the crippling effects of an international pandemic.

Here in Mexico City, Mayor Marcelo Ebrard is defending his decision to close restaurants, theaters, soccer stadia and other public venues, saying that his administration's top priority is to stop the spread of disease. The disease prevention strategy comes at a high price: Mexican newspaper El Universal reports that the economic impact of controlling the spread of swine flu in Mexico City is 777 million pesos a day (more than USD $55 million). The report extrapolates that if the emergency measures end on May 6^th-the date students are scheduled to return to school- the total cost will be seven billion pesos, or about 500 million USD.

Local restaurateurs have told Los Angeles Times Mexico Correspondent, Deborah Bonello that the loss of business is so severe that they might not recover from the closure.

And this is just Mexico City.

As reported last night, Air Canada and Canadian regional airline WestJet cancelled flights to Cancun, Puerto Vallarta, Los Cabos, Mazatlan and Cozumel. France is considering banning flights to Mexico. These actions will hit tourism- Mexico´s third largest source of revenue after oil and remittances -- hard, and the effects of swine flu will be felt beyond Mexico City, where the majority of swine flu cases have been identified.

Monday evening, seven police officers were killed in Tijuana, the latest victims of Mexico´s ongoing fight with drug traffickers, which has taken more than 10,000 lives over the last two years. On Tuesday, it was reported that swine flu killed one additional person in Mexico City. Could the flu epidemic end uphaving an even greater impact on Mexico´s economy than the drug ¨war¨?

It is too early to say how long it will take Mexico and the world to recover from the swine flu scare. We still don´t know how serious this flu will ultimately be, or how long it will last. Meanwhile, the WHO may soon raise their alert levels.

It is safe to say that even if the scare ends quickly, we will be dealing with the economic effects of swine flu for several months.

Tell us how swine flu is affecting your business. Comment below.

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April 29, 2009: Update "The swine flu rut"

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